Hilton Food Group Plc(HFG)
GBX --+0.00%
Reward55Moderate
Risk50Moderate
📊75%Data
Thin 1% profit margin · 6.8% dividend yield
HFG
+0.0 · +0.00%
GBX · LSE
Hilton Food Group Plc | Consumer Defensive
Dividend King
Market Cap:449.78M
ℹ️
Reward Rating
55
Moderate
Bottom 50% (model universe)
75% data coverage
ℹ️
Risk Rating
50
Moderate
Risk Assessment
ℹ️

Educational tool only – Scores are based on historical data and financial metrics for informational purposes. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser.

ℹ️ Educational tool only · More

Market Performance

Stock returned +10.0% over the past year, broadly in line with market conditions.

Analyst Target

Analyst consensus price target: 689p.

What is Hilton Food Group Plc?

Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food packing business.

HFG · Verdict

Solid reward · moderate risk

HFG's standout is valuation, while balance sheet remains the main concern.

Based on 88% data coverage

HFG · Verdict

What’s working & what to watch

Strengths 1

  • Valuation88/100

    P/E 10.6× · PEG 0.00

Watchouts 1

  • Balance sheet44/100

    Interest covered 2.5×

Model-based scoring. For information only — not financial advice.

What is Hilton Food Group Plc?

Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food packing business. The company provides meats; soups, sandwiches and wraps, reflecting international cuisine and local tastes, and ready to cook food; smoked salmon, wet fish, shell fish, coated fish, and fish cakes; and plant-based products. The company is listed on the LSE in UK, operating in the Consumer Defensive sector, with a market capitalisation of 449.78M, and a P/E ratio of 11.6x.

Financial Highlights

Investment Breakdown

📈 Growth
Moderate growth momentum — positive trajectory without breakout acceleration.
💰 Profitability
Profitability metrics are mixed — margins may be under pressure.
⚠️ Risk
Risk profile appears balanced versus broad market conditions.
💸 Valuation
Currently trading below intrinsic value estimates, suggesting upside potential.

OpenBook Logo Analysis

Reward: Moderate (55)

The scoring profile indicates moderate reward potential, with valuation and momentum as the leading contributors. Risk indicators are moderate, consistent with typical market exposure.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Company Information
SectorConsumer Defensive
Market Cap449.78M
P/E Ratio11.6279
Dividend Yield6.78%
52 Week High874.784
52 Week Low447.888
Last AnnualDecember
IPO Date5/17/2007
IncorporatedUK
Shares Outstanding90M
No. of Employees7,500
IndustryPackaged Foods
ExchangeLSE
Beta0.828
CurrencyGBX

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Uses ISF.L (iShares FTSE 100 ETF)
Indicators

Performance Metrics

Historical returns

Annual Returns

Calendar year performance

Insufficient price history.
Fundamentals
Fundamentals Insights
Educational tool only. Not financial advice.

Business Snapshot

  • Revenue TrendDecelerating
  • Profitability TrendStable
  • Balance Sheet StrengthModerate
  • Cash GenerationModerate

Risk Flags

Structural indicators detected (5):
Growth
  • Revenue growth has decelerated for 2 consecutive years (-0.0% latest).
  • Recent revenue trajectory appears heavily influenced by a single outlier year (52.9% YoY spike).
Balance Sheet
  • Net debt has shown elevated year-over-year volatility.
  • Interest coverage is 2.53x (below 3.0x).
  • Share count has increased for 2 consecutive years (0.7% versus two years ago).

What Changed This Year

Compared to 2023:
  • Net Income↑ 67.7%
  • Free Cash Flow↓ 53.5%
  • Operating Income↑ 14.7%
  • EBITDA↑ 9.2%

Income Statement

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Balance Sheet

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Cash Flow

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Key Ratios

Net Margin
0.99%
Net Income / Revenue
Operating Margin
2.48%
Operating Income / Revenue
ROE
12.82%
Net Income / Equity
Debt-to-Equity
1.10x
Net Debt / Equity
FCF Yield
11.09%
FCF / Market Cap

Community Discussion

4 today

Share your insights and read what others think about Hilton Food Group Plc

4 posts
0/500 characters
John Investor · 2 hours agoBullish
Really impressive Q3 results. Revenue growth of 15% YoY is strong given the current market conditions. The management team seems to be executing well on their strategic plan.
Sarah Chen · 5 hours agoBearish
Concerned about the increasing debt levels. While the P/E ratio looks attractive, the debt-to-equity ratio has been climbing. Would like to see more focus on deleveraging in the next few quarters.
Mike Trading · 1 day agoBullish
Been holding this for 3 years now. Solid dividend yield and consistent performance. Great for long-term investors looking for stability.
Emma Watson · 1 day agoNeutral
What are people's thoughts on the upcoming merger announcement? Could be a game changer for the industry.
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AI-powered community insights

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AI Community Insights

Analysis of the past 4 weeks

Community Summary

Community sentiment analysis...

Sentiment Analysis

Community engagement metrics

This Week

Total Posts12
Active Users8
Avg. Posts/Day2

Community Sentiment

Bullish50%
Neutral25%
Bearish25%
Key Takeaway

Balanced ownership with meaningful insider stakes and moderate institutional participation.

13.8% Insider 50.4% Institutional 35.8% Float
64%
Total Owned
Insider
Institutional
Public Float
13.8%
Insider

Insider Ownership

Bullish

Insiders own 13.8%, which suggests meaningful management commitment to the business.

50.4%
Institutional

Institutional Ownership

Moderate

Institutions own 50.4%, which suggests a balanced ownership mix.

35.8%
Public

Public Float

Low

Public float is 35.8%, which points to a fairly balanced ownership structure.

Reward Rating Breakdown

Our Reward Rating provides a model-based reward profile for HFG using 5 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 and combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Reward Rating
55
Moderate REWARD
Data Coverage: 75%

📈 Growth

Weight: 40%
49/100

Growth measures the company's ability to expand its business over time through revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Historical (60%)
Revenue CAGR (3yr)
6.5%
Neutral
Net Income CAGR (3yr)
1.9%
Neutral
FCF CAGR (3yr)
158.1%
Very Good
Forward Estimates (40%)
Rev Est Growth (NTM)
5.0%
Good
EPS Est Growth (NTM)
-15.9%
Very Bad
Analyst Target Upside
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

HFG scored 49/100 for growth, blending a 3-year historical track record (60%) with analyst forward estimates (40%). Historical revenue CAGR of 6.5% is positive. Forward: analysts forecast 5.0% revenue growth next year, EPS expected to fall -15.9%. Overall, growth appears mixed and should be monitored with risk factors. Forecasts and analyst targets are estimates and may be inaccurate.

🚀 Momentum

Weight: 25%
50/100

Momentum is assessed relative to the FTSE 100 benchmark where available. This provides context for recent price movement across different market conditions.

12M vs Benchmark 30%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
6M vs Benchmark 25%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
3M Return 20%
Neutral
Consistency 15%
3m vs 1Y/4 normalised
No Data
Volume Trend 10%
30d vs 90d avg volume
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

Insufficient price history to assess momentum. Score defaulted to neutral (50).

💰 Profitability

Weight: 20%
47/100

Profitability examines both the current margin level and margin expansion trends. High and expanding margins indicate pricing power and operational efficiency.

Gross Margin 25%
11.5%
Sector avg 45%
Weak
Net Margin 20%
1.0%
Sector avg 10%
Weak
FCF Conversion 20%
127%
FCF / Net Income
Very Good
EBIT Growth (3yr) 15%
18.4%
Very Good
ROE (TTM) 10%
12.9%
Good
ROA (TTM) 10%
4.9%
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

HFG scores 47/100 for profitability, assessed sector-relative on margins and via absolute thresholds for capital efficiency. Gross margin of 11.5% is 75% below the sector average of 45% — suggesting below-average pricing power or higher input costs vs peers. Net margin of 1.0% sits 90% below the sector norm of 10%. FCF conversion of 127% indicates reported profits are strongly supported by cash flow. EBIT growing at 18.4% (3yr CAGR) indicates positive operational progress. Overall, profitability appears moderate and may require improvement for stronger resilience. Profitability trends can change and should be reviewed alongside balance-sheet risk.

💎 Valuation

Weight: 15%
88/100

Valuation is scored sector-relative — each metric is compared against the typical multiple for this industry, so a high P/E in Healthcare is judged differently to a high P/E in Energy. PEG and Price/FCF use absolute thresholds.

PEG Ratio 25%
0.00
No Data
EV/EBITDA 25%
4.9x
Sector avg 12x
Higher Relative Value
Fwd P/E 20%
10.6x
Sector avg 18x
Higher Relative Value
Price/FCF 20%
9.0x
Higher Relative Value
EV/Sales 10%
0.2x
Sector avg 2x
Higher Relative Value
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj
1.9x
Moderate
🤖Model Commentary

HFG received a valuation score of 88/100 using sector-relative scoring. Its Forward P/E of 10.6x is 41% below the sector average of 18x. EV/EBITDA of 4.9x sits 60% below the sector norm of 12x. Price/FCF of 9.0x is low on this model's cash-yield lens. Leverage is moderate at 1.9x Net Debt/EBITDA. Overall, valuation multiples are lower than selected sector peers on this model. Valuation metrics are not forecasts of future returns.

⚠️

Educational Tool Only

The reward rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Risk Rating Breakdown

Our Risk Rating provides a model-based risk profile for HFG using 4 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 (higher = riskier), then combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Risk Rating
50
Moderate RISK
Data Coverage: 100%

⚖️ Financial Solvency

Weight: 35%
56/100

Financial Solvency measures the company's ability to service and repay its debt obligations. Five sub-metrics are weighted to produce the composite score.

Interest Coverage (25%)
2.5x
Elevated Risk Band
Net Debt / EBITDA (20%)
1.9x
Conservative
Current Ratio (20%)
1.11x
Tight
Debt Trend 3yr (15%)
+3%
Stable
FCF / Debt Coverage (20%)
15%
Adequate
🤖Model Commentary

HFG has a financial solvency risk score of 56/100. This represents moderate leverage that warrants monitoring. Interest coverage of 2.5x is adequate but not comfortable. Net debt/EBITDA of 1.9x is within the manageable range. Debt has changed +3% over the last 3 years. The balance sheet appears manageable in normal conditions but could face stress in a downturn. Coverage ratios and free cash flow trends remain important.

💼 Operational Quality

Weight: 30%
39/100

Operational Quality measures bottom-line efficiency, cash generation, capital productivity, and margin consistency — four equally weighted signals of business model resilience.

Net Margin (25%)
1.0%
Very Thin
FCF Margin (25%)
1.3%
Weak
Cash ROA (25%)
10.1%
Low Risk Band
Margin Stability (25%)
±0.3pp
Very Stable
🤖Model Commentary

HFG scores 39/100 for operational quality, indicating moderate operational risk. The company shows positive FCF margin of 1.3%, high capital efficiency, with Cash ROA of 10.1%, highly stable margins (±0.3pp variance over 3 years). Key concerns: a very thin net margin of 1.0%. Overall the business appears viable but not without risk. Margin trends should be monitored over time.

📉 Volatility

Weight: 25%
50/100

Volatility measures price instability, worst-case drawdowns, and sensitivity to broader market moves.

Annualised Volatility (35%)
Max Drawdown (35%)
Beta (30%)
0.83
Market-Like
🤖Model Commentary

HFG has a volatility risk score of 50/100. This represents moderate-to-elevated volatility — above average but manageable. Investors may experience periodic double-digit declines in this profile.

📊 Size Factor

Weight: 10%
65/100

Size factor captures existential risk. Smaller companies have higher failure rates, less diversification, and greater vulnerability to shocks.

Market Cap
£0.4B
Neutral
Size Category
Micro Cap
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

HFG has a market cap of £0.4B (Micro Cap), resulting in a size risk score of 65/100. As a smaller company, it faces elevated business and funding risk. Small and micro-caps have higher failure rates, less diversified revenue, and greater vulnerability to competitive threats or economic shocks. They often lack scale advantages and may struggle to access capital markets during stress. Smaller companies can experience higher dispersion of outcomes, including business failure or sustained capital impairment. Diversification is important when investing at this size.

ℹ️

Educational Tool Only

The risk rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Analyst Forecasts

Forward-looking analyst estimates for HFG. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.

Revenue-1.3% growth
Based on 6 analysts
EPS-15.9% growth
EPS revisions slipping over the past 30 days
Forecast ToneCautious·Medium agreement
Cautious consensus profile with -1.3% revenue growth and -15.9% EPS growth.
Confidence is medium agreement, coverage sits at 6 analysts, forecast ranges show tight ranges, 30-day EPS revisions are softening.
Consensus
-1.3% revenue growth
Consensus target of 689.00p
Confidence
Medium agreement
Based on 6 analysts with tight ranges
Watch Item
Revisions are slipping
EPS expectations have been cut over the last 30 days, which weakens the forward setup.

Share Price Forecast

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Model Commentary
That view is based on 6 analysts. Medium agreement means the Street is directionally aligned but still leaving room for debate. Analyst targets and forecasts can change quickly after new company or market information.

Yearly Revenue and 2-Year Forecast

Reported revenue for the last 5 years, followed by low, consensus, and high analyst revenue estimates for the next two years. Consensus revenue implies -1.3% YoY growth tight ranges on revenue estimates

Model Commentary
Revenue is projected to move from 4.0B last year to 4.2B in 2025E and 4.1B in 2026E. That implies +4.6% into 2025E and -1.3% into 2026E on the top line. The 2026E range of 3.7B to 4.3B suggests tight ranges on revenue expectations. Revenue misses can lead to EPS estimate revisions and changes in valuation assumptions. Forecast ranges reflect uncertainty and should be read alongside risk metrics.

2-Year EPS Estimates

Low, consensus, and high analyst EPS estimates for the next two fiscal years. Consensus EPS implies -15.9% YoY growth tight ranges on EPS estimates

Model Commentary
Analysts are currently looking for 57.30p in 2025E and 48.17p in 2026E. The outer-year range runs from 46.43p to 50.70p, which counts as tight ranges. Consensus currently models -15.9% EPS growth over the next period. EPS estimates are subject to revision and do not guarantee future results.