HSBC Holdings PLC(HSBA)
GBX --+0.00%
Reward59Moderate
Risk46Moderate
📊75%Data
Strong 35% profit margin · 5.6% dividend yield · Revenue growing 58% YoY
HSBA
+0.0 · +0.00%
GBX · LSE
HSBC Holdings PLC | Financial Services
Dividend King
Market Cap:216.77Bn
ℹ️
Reward Rating
59
Moderate
Top 50% (model universe)
75% data coverage
ℹ️
Risk Rating
46
Moderate
Risk Assessment
ℹ️

Educational tool only – Scores are based on historical data and financial metrics for informational purposes. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser.

ℹ️ Educational tool only · More

Market Performance

Stock returned +10.0% over the past year, broadly in line with market conditions.

Analyst Target

Analyst consensus price target: 1262p.

What is HSBC Holdings PLC?

HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide.

HSBA · Verdict

Solid reward · moderate risk

HSBA stands out on volatility and profitability, but watch the balance sheet signal.

Based on 88% data coverage

HSBA · Verdict

What’s working & what to watch

Strengths 4

  • Volatility80/100

    Top decile vs peers

  • Profitability66/100

    15% net margin · 12% ROE

  • Growth65/100

    Rev +25.5% CAGR · earnings +13.5%

  • Cash flow65/100

    6% free-cash-flow margin

Watchouts 1

  • Balance sheet20/100

    Interest covered 0.4×

Model-based scoring. For information only — not financial advice.

What is HSBC Holdings PLC?

HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The company is listed on the LSE in UK, operating in the Financial Services sector, with a market capitalisation of 216.77B, and a P/E ratio of 14.0x.

Financial Highlights

Investment Breakdown

📈 Growth
Revenue and earnings growing steadily, indicating improving operating performance.
💰 Profitability
Adequate profitability with some margin variability in recent periods.
⚠️ Risk
Risk profile appears balanced versus broad market conditions.
💸 Valuation
Valuation appears fair relative to current fundamentals.

OpenBook Logo Analysis

Reward: Moderate (59)

The scoring profile indicates moderate reward potential, with profitability and growth as the leading contributors. Risk indicators are moderate, consistent with typical market exposure.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Company Information
SectorFinancial Services
Market Cap216.77B
P/E Ratio14.0311
Dividend Yield5.63%
52 Week High1410.6
52 Week Low682.4322
Last AnnualDecember
IPO DateN/A
IncorporatedUK
Shares Outstanding17B
No. of Employees208,720
IndustryBanks - Diversified
ExchangeLSE
Beta0.465
CurrencyGBX

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Uses ISF.L (iShares FTSE 100 ETF)
Indicators

Performance Metrics

Historical returns

Annual Returns

Calendar year performance

Insufficient price history.
Fundamentals
Fundamentals Insights
Educational tool only. Not financial advice.

Business Snapshot

  • Revenue TrendDecelerating
  • Profitability TrendDeteriorating
  • Balance Sheet StrengthWeak
  • Cash GenerationModerate

Risk Flags

Structural indicators detected (5):
Growth
  • Revenue growth has decelerated for 2 consecutive years (5.1% latest).
Balance Sheet
  • Interest coverage is 0.43x (below 3.0x).
  • Net debt / EBITDA is above recent norm (8.67x latest).
  • Net debt has shown elevated year-over-year volatility.
  • Financial flexibility indicator (net debt / (EBITDA - capex)) has risen for 2 consecutive years.

What Changed This Year

Compared to 2024:
  • Net Debt↑ 707.9%
  • Free Cash Flow↓ 84.4%
  • Net Income↓ 33.3%
  • EBITDA↓ 18.7%

Income Statement

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Balance Sheet

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Cash Flow

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Key Ratios

Net Margin
15.11%
Net Income / Revenue
Operating Margin
18.30%
Operating Income / Revenue
ROE
12.81%
Net Income / Equity
Debt-to-Equity
1.44x
Net Debt / Equity
FCF Yield
4.41%
FCF / Market Cap
Key Takeaway

Mixed ownership structure with varying levels of insider, institutional, and public participation.

0.2% Insider 51.1% Institutional 48.7% Float
51%
Total Owned
Insider
Institutional
Public Float
0.2%
Insider

Insider Ownership

Bearish

Insiders own 0.2%, which points to limited direct management ownership.

51.1%
Institutional

Institutional Ownership

Moderate

Institutions own 51.1%, which suggests a balanced ownership mix.

48.7%
Public

Public Float

Moderate

Public float is 48.7%, which points to a fairly balanced ownership structure.

Reward Rating Breakdown

Our Reward Rating provides a model-based reward profile for HSBA using 5 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 and combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Reward Rating
59
Moderate REWARD
Data Coverage: 75%

📈 Growth

Weight: 40%
65/100

Growth measures the company's ability to expand its business over time through revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Historical (60%)
Revenue CAGR (3yr)
25.5%
Very Good
Net Income CAGR (3yr)
13.5%
Good
FCF CAGR (3yr)
-24.3%
Very Bad
Forward Estimates (40%)
Rev Est Growth (NTM)
5.6%
Good
EPS Est Growth (NTM)
10.3%
Good
Analyst Target Upside
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA scored 65/100 for growth, blending a 3-year historical track record (60%) with analyst forward estimates (40%). Historical revenue CAGR of 25.5% is above model thresholds. FCF declining at -24.3% is worth monitoring. Forward: analysts forecast 5.6% revenue growth next year, EPS expected to grow 10.3%. Overall, growth metrics are moderately positive. Forecasts and analyst targets are estimates and may be inaccurate.

🚀 Momentum

Weight: 25%
50/100

Momentum is assessed relative to the FTSE 100 benchmark where available. This provides context for recent price movement across different market conditions.

12M vs Benchmark 30%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
6M vs Benchmark 25%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
3M Return 20%
Neutral
Consistency 15%
3m vs 1Y/4 normalised
No Data
Volume Trend 10%
30d vs 90d avg volume
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

Insufficient price history to assess momentum. Score defaulted to neutral (50).

💰 Profitability

Weight: 20%
66/100

Profitability examines both the current margin level and margin expansion trends. High and expanding margins indicate pricing power and operational efficiency.

Gross Margin 25%
54.6%
Sector avg 45%
Above Average
Net Margin 20%
15.1%
Sector avg 10%
Higher Relative
FCF Conversion 20%
42%
FCF / Net Income
Neutral
EBIT Growth (3yr) 15%
17.3%
Very Good
ROE (TTM) 10%
11.6%
Neutral
ROA (TTM) 10%
0.7%
Bad
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA scores 66/100 for profitability, assessed sector-relative on margins and via absolute thresholds for capital efficiency. Gross margin of 54.6% is 21% above the sector average of 45% — indicating margins are materially above peers. Net margin of 15.1% sits 51% above the sector norm of 10%. FCF conversion of 42% is low — reported earnings may overstate true cash generation. EBIT growing at 17.3% (3yr CAGR) indicates positive operational progress. Overall, profitability metrics are broadly healthy versus sector references. Profitability trends can change and should be reviewed alongside balance-sheet risk.

💎 Valuation

Weight: 15%
51/100

Valuation is scored sector-relative — each metric is compared against the typical multiple for this industry, so a high P/E in Healthcare is judged differently to a high P/E in Energy. PEG and Price/FCF use absolute thresholds.

PEG Ratio 25%
1.29
Moderate Relative Value
EV/EBITDA 25%
0.0x
Sector avg 12x
Higher Relative Value
Fwd P/E 20%
11.6x
Sector avg 18x
Above-Average Relative Value
Price/FCF 20%
22.7x
In Line
EV/Sales 10%
1.8x
Sector avg 2x
In Line
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj
8.7x
Very High
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA received a valuation score of 51/100 using sector-relative scoring. A PEG of 1.29 shows growth reasonably supports the current price. Its Forward P/E of 11.6x is 35% below the sector average of 18x. EV/EBITDA of 0.0x sits 100% below the sector norm of 12x. Price/FCF of 22.7x is reasonable. Leverage is stretched at 8.7x Net Debt/EBITDA — this has applied a penalty to the valuation score. Overall, valuation multiples are broadly in line with selected sector references. Valuation metrics are not forecasts of future returns.

⚠️

Educational Tool Only

The reward rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Risk Rating Breakdown

Our Risk Rating provides a model-based risk profile for HSBA using 4 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 (higher = riskier), then combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Risk Rating
46
Moderate RISK
Data Coverage: 100%

⚖️ Financial Solvency

Weight: 35%
80/100

Financial Solvency measures the company's ability to service and repay its debt obligations. Five sub-metrics are weighted to produce the composite score.

Interest Coverage (25%)
0.4x
Highest Risk Band
Net Debt / EBITDA (20%)
8.7x
Very High
Current Ratio (20%)
1.69x
Balanced
Debt Trend 3yr (15%)
+276%
Rapidly Deteriorating
FCF / Debt Coverage (20%)
4%
Higher Distress Risk
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA has a financial solvency risk score of 80/100. This indicates elevated leverage risk in this model. Interest coverage is 0.4x—earnings barely cover debt service. Net debt is 8.7x EBITDA, well above the 3x warning threshold. Heavily leveraged companies can face refinancing pressure and increased sensitivity to rate changes or earnings weakness.

💼 Operational Quality

Weight: 30%
35/100

Operational Quality measures bottom-line efficiency, cash generation, capital productivity, and margin consistency — four equally weighted signals of business model resilience.

Net Margin (25%)
15.1%
Low Risk Band
FCF Margin (25%)
6.3%
Adequate
Cash ROA (25%)
0.3%
Very Weak
Margin Stability (25%)
±1.8pp
Very Stable
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA scores 35/100 for operational quality, indicating moderate operational risk. The company shows a high net margin of 15.1%, positive FCF margin of 6.3%, highly stable margins (±1.8pp variance over 3 years). Key concerns: weak capital efficiency with 0.3% Cash ROA. Overall the business appears viable but not without risk. Margin trends should be monitored over time.

📉 Volatility

Weight: 25%
20/100

Volatility measures price instability, worst-case drawdowns, and sensitivity to broader market moves.

Annualised Volatility (35%)
Max Drawdown (35%)
Beta (30%)
0.47
Defensive
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA has a volatility risk score of 20/100. This shows lower volatility with relatively stable prices in the measured period. Beta of 0.47 indicates defensive characteristics — it moves less than the market. Lower volatility may be more compatible with conservative risk budgets, depending on portfolio context.

📊 Size Factor

Weight: 10%
20/100

Size factor captures existential risk. Smaller companies have higher failure rates, less diversification, and greater vulnerability to shocks.

Market Cap
£216.8B
Neutral
Size Category
Large Cap
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

HSBA has a market cap of £216.8B (Large Cap), resulting in a size risk score of 20/100. As a large-cap company, it has comparatively lower size-related risk. Large companies benefit from scale, diversified operations, established brands, and easier access to capital. While not immune to failure, they have resources to navigate challenges and lower statistical failure rates. Size can support operational stability and reduce business fragility, though growth rates may vary. Size-based observations are descriptive and not recommendations.

ℹ️

Educational Tool Only

The risk rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Analyst Forecasts

Forward-looking analyst estimates for HSBA. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.

Revenue+1.9% growth
Based on 14 analysts
EPS+10.3% growth
EPS revisions trending up over the past 30 days
Forecast ToneBalanced·Medium agreement
Balanced consensus profile with +1.9% revenue growth and +10.3% EPS growth.
Confidence is medium agreement, coverage sits at 16 analysts, forecast ranges show moderate dispersion, 30-day EPS revisions are improving.
Consensus
+1.9% revenue growth
Consensus target of 1261.56p
Confidence
Medium agreement
Based on 16 analysts with moderate dispersion
Watch Item
Execution needs to hold
Strong growth expectations leave less room for disappointment if execution slows.

Share Price Forecast

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Model Commentary
That view is based on 16 analysts. Medium agreement means the Street is directionally aligned but still leaving room for debate. Analyst targets and forecasts can change quickly after new company or market information.

Yearly Revenue and 2-Year Forecast

Reported revenue for the last 5 years, followed by low, consensus, and high analyst revenue estimates for the next two years. Consensus revenue implies +1.9% YoY growth tight ranges on revenue estimates

Model Commentary
Revenue is projected to move from 150.6B last year to 73.0B in 2026E and 74.3B in 2027E. That implies -51.5% into 2026E and +1.9% into 2027E on the top line. The 2027E range of 69.2B to 76.7B suggests tight ranges on revenue expectations. Revenue misses can lead to EPS estimate revisions and changes in valuation assumptions. Forecast ranges reflect uncertainty and should be read alongside risk metrics.

2-Year EPS Estimates

Low, consensus, and high analyst EPS estimates for the next two fiscal years. Consensus EPS implies +10.3% YoY growth moderate dispersion on EPS estimates

Model Commentary
Analysts are currently looking for 156.05p in 2026E and 172.05p in 2027E. The outer-year range runs from 147.96p to 189.58p, which counts as moderate dispersion. Consensus currently models +10.3% EPS growth over the next period. EPS estimates are subject to revision and do not guarantee future results.