Persimmon PLC(PSN)
GBX --+0.00%
35Reward
43Risk
📊75%Data
4.1% dividend yield · Revenue growing 14% YoY
PSN
+0.0 · +0.00%
GBX · LSE
Persimmon PLC | Consumer Cyclical
Capital Destroyer
Market Cap:4.40Bn
ℹ️
Reward Rating
35
Moderate
Bottom 5% stock
75% data coverage
ℹ️
Risk Rating
43
Moderate
Risk Assessment
ℹ️

Educational tool only – Scores are based on historical data and financial metrics for informational purposes. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser.

ℹ️ Educational tool only · More

Market Performance

Stock returned +10.0% over the past year, broadly in line with market conditions.

Analyst Target

Analyst consensus price target: 1628p.

What is Persimmon PLC?

Persimmon Plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a house builder in the United Kingdom. The company offers family housing under the Persimmon Homes brand name; housing under the Charles Church brand name; and social housing under the Westbury Partnerships brand name. The company is listed on the LSE in UK, operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector, with a market capitalisation of 4.40B, and a P/E ratio of 17.4x.

Financial Highlights

Investment Breakdown

📈 Growth
Revenue and earnings growing steadily, indicating improving operating performance.
💰 Profitability
Thin or inconsistent margins weigh on earnings quality.
⚠️ Risk
Risk profile appears balanced versus broad market conditions.
💸 Valuation
Valuation appears fair relative to current fundamentals.

OpenBook Logo Analysis

Reward: Moderate (35)

The scoring profile indicates weak reward characteristics across most factors, including valuation and momentum. Risk indicators are moderate, consistent with typical market exposure.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Company Information
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Market Cap4.40B
P/E Ratio17.3924
Dividend Yield4.11%
52 Week High1552
52 Week Low1013.1442
Last AnnualDecember
IPO DateN/A
IncorporatedUK
Shares Outstanding321M
No. of Employees4,731
IndustryResidential Construction
ExchangeLSE
Beta1.318
CurrencyGBX

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Uses ISF.L (iShares FTSE 100 ETF)
Indicators

Performance Metrics

Historical returns

Annual Returns

Calendar year performance

Insufficient price history.
Fundamentals
Fundamentals Insights
Educational tool only. Not financial advice.

Business Snapshot

  • Revenue TrendAccelerating
  • Profitability TrendDeteriorating
  • Balance Sheet StrengthStrong
  • Cash GenerationWeak

Risk Flags

Structural indicators detected (5):
Growth
  • Revenue remains 16.1% below the prior peak from 2022.
Profitability
  • Operating margin is 8.1pp below its recent average.
  • Operating cash flow to net income ratio has remained below 1.0x for 2 consecutive years (0.32x latest).
  • Net income has improved year-over-year but remains 69.9% below its prior peak.
Balance Sheet
  • Net debt has shown elevated year-over-year volatility.

What Changed This Year

Compared to 2023:
  • Net Debt↑ 146.4%
  • Free Cash Flow↑ 131.6%
  • Revenue↑ 15.4%
  • Operating Income↑ 13.6%

Income Statement

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Balance Sheet

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Cash Flow

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Key Ratios

Net Margin
8.35%
Net Income / Revenue
Operating Margin
12.32%
Operating Income / Revenue
ROE
7.62%
Net Income / Equity
Debt-to-Equity
0.06x
Net Debt / Equity
FCF Yield
1.19%
FCF / Market Cap

Community Discussion

4 today

Share your insights and read what others think about Persimmon PLC

4 posts
0/500 characters
John Investor · 2 hours agoBullish
Really impressive Q3 results. Revenue growth of 15% YoY is strong given the current market conditions. The management team seems to be executing well on their strategic plan.
Sarah Chen · 5 hours agoBearish
Concerned about the increasing debt levels. While the P/E ratio looks attractive, the debt-to-equity ratio has been climbing. Would like to see more focus on deleveraging in the next few quarters.
Mike Trading · 1 day agoBullish
Been holding this for 3 years now. Solid dividend yield and consistent performance. Great for long-term investors looking for stability.
Emma Watson · 1 day agoNeutral
What are people's thoughts on the upcoming merger announcement? Could be a game changer for the industry.
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AI-powered community insights

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AI Community Insights

Analysis of the past 4 weeks

Community Summary

Community sentiment analysis...

Sentiment Analysis

Community engagement metrics

This Week

Total Posts12
Active Users8
Avg. Posts/Day2

Community Sentiment

Bullish50%
Neutral25%
Bearish25%
Key Takeaway

Mixed ownership structure with varying levels of insider, institutional, and public participation.

2.2% Insider 53.8% Institutional 44.0% Float
56%
Total Owned
Insider
Institutional
Public Float
2.2%
Insider

Insider Ownership

Bearish

Insiders own 2.2%, which points to limited direct management ownership.

53.8%
Institutional

Institutional Ownership

Moderate

Institutions own 53.8%, which suggests a balanced ownership mix.

44.0%
Public

Public Float

Moderate

Public float is 44.0%, which points to a fairly balanced ownership structure.

Reward Rating Breakdown

Our reward rating analyses PSN's potential upside using 5 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100, then combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Reward Rating
35
Moderate REWARD
Data Coverage: 75%

📈 Growth

Weight: 40%
26/100

Growth measures the company's ability to expand its business over time through revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Historical (60%)
Revenue CAGR (3yr)
-3.9%
Bad
Net Income CAGR (3yr)
-30.3%
Very Bad
FCF CAGR (3yr)
-59.0%
Very Bad
Forward Estimates (40%)
Rev Est Growth (NTM)
2.4%
Neutral
EPS Est Growth (NTM)
7.0%
Good
Analyst Target Upside
Neutral
🤖AI Analysis

PSN scored 26/100 for growth — blending a 3-year historical track record (60%) with analyst forward estimates (40%). Historical revenue has been declining (-3.9% CAGR), a headwind. Net income contracted at -30.3%, suggesting cost or margin pressure. FCF declining at -59.0% is worth monitoring. Forward: analysts forecast 2.4% revenue growth next year, EPS expected to grow 7.0%. Weak growth signals across both historical and forward metrics — a clear area of concern.

🚀 Momentum

Weight: 25%
50/100

Momentum is assessed relative to the FTSE 100 benchmark where available. Relative outperformance is a stronger signal than absolute return alone.

12M vs Benchmark 30%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
6M vs Benchmark 25%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
3M Return 20%
Neutral
Consistency 15%
3m vs 1Y/4 normalised
No Data
Volume Trend 10%
30d vs 90d avg volume
Neutral
🤖AI Analysis

Insufficient price history to assess momentum. Score defaulted to neutral (50).

💰 Profitability

Weight: 20%
20/100

Profitability examines both the current margin level and margin expansion trends. High and expanding margins indicate pricing power and operational efficiency.

Gross Margin 25%
18.1%
Sector avg 45%
Weak
Net Margin 20%
8.3%
Sector avg 10%
Below Average
FCF Conversion 20%
20%
FCF / Net Income
Bad
EBIT Growth (3yr) 15%
-27.0%
Very Bad
ROE (TTM) 10%
7.4%
Neutral
ROA (TTM) 10%
5.1%
Good
🤖AI Analysis

PSN scores 20/100 for profitability, assessed sector-relative on margins and via absolute thresholds for capital efficiency. Gross margin of 18.1% is 60% below the sector average of 45% — suggesting below-average pricing power or higher input costs vs peers. Net margin of 8.3% sits 17% below the sector norm of 10%. FCF conversion of 20% is low — reported earnings may overstate true cash generation. Operating profit has been declining, which warrants monitoring. Weak profitability across multiple metrics is a clear area of concern for investors.

💎 Valuation

Weight: 15%
53/100

Valuation is scored sector-relative — each metric is compared against the typical multiple for this industry, so a high P/E in Healthcare is judged differently to a high P/E in Energy. PEG and Price/FCF use absolute thresholds.

PEG Ratio 25%
1.00
Good Value
EV/EBITDA 25%
11.2x
Sector avg 12x
In Line
Fwd P/E 20%
14.1x
Sector avg 18x
Very Good Value
Price/FCF 20%
83.7x
Very Expensive
EV/Sales 10%
1.3x
Sector avg 2x
Very Good Value
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj
0.5x
Low Leverage
🤖AI Analysis

PSN received a valuation score of 53/100 using sector-relative scoring. A PEG of 1.00 shows growth reasonably supports the current price. Its Forward P/E of 14.1x is 22% below the sector average of 18x. EV/EBITDA of 11.2x sits 6% below the sector norm of 12x. Price/FCF of 83.7x is elevated, meaning the cash yield is modest. Leverage is low at 0.5x Net Debt/EBITDA — a comfortable position. Overall the stock trades broadly in line with sector norms.

⚠️

Educational Tool Only

The reward rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Risk Rating Breakdown

Our risk rating assesses PSN's downside potential using 4 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 (higher = riskier), then combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Risk Rating
43
Moderate RISK
Data Coverage: 100%

⚖️ Financial Solvency

Weight: 35%
23/100

Financial Solvency measures the company's ability to service and repay its debt obligations. Five sub-metrics are weighted to produce the composite score.

Interest Coverage (25%)
27.0x
Exceptional
Net Debt / EBITDA (20%)
0.5x
Minimal
Current Ratio (20%)
4.71x
Very Strong
Debt Trend 3yr (15%)
+154%
Rapidly Deteriorating
FCF / Debt Coverage (20%)
27%
Good
🤖AI Analysis

PSN has a financial solvency risk score of 23/100. This shows low leverage risk and a healthy balance sheet. Interest coverage of 27.0x means earnings comfortably exceed debt service. Current ratio of 4.71x confirms strong short-term liquidity. FCF covers 27% of total debt annually, indicating strong repayment capacity. The company has flexibility to invest, return capital, or absorb unexpected shocks.

💼 Operational Quality

Weight: 30%
51/100

Operational Quality measures bottom-line efficiency, cash generation, capital productivity, and margin consistency — four equally weighted signals of business model resilience.

Net Margin (25%)
8.3%
Adequate
FCF Margin (25%)
1.6%
Weak
Cash ROA (25%)
1.8%
Weak
Margin Stability (25%)
±5.3pp
Stable
🤖AI Analysis

PSN scores 51/100 for operational quality, indicating elevated operational risk. The company shows a positive net margin of 8.3%, positive FCF margin of 1.6%. Key concerns: weak capital efficiency with 1.8% Cash ROA; moderate margin variance of ±5.3pp over 3 years. Overall the business is viable but not without risk. Investors should monitor whether margins are improving or deteriorating quarter on quarter.

📉 Volatility

Weight: 25%
65/100

Volatility measures price instability, worst-case drawdowns, and sensitivity to broader market moves.

Annualised Volatility (35%)
Max Drawdown (35%)
Beta (30%)
1.32
Moderately Aggressive
🤖AI Analysis

PSN has a volatility risk score of 65/100. This represents moderate-to-elevated volatility — above average but manageable. Beta of 1.32 means it amplifies broad market moves. Investors should expect periodic double-digit declines but can ride them out with patience.

📊 Size Factor

Weight: 10%
35/100

Size factor captures existential risk. Smaller companies have higher failure rates, less diversification, and greater vulnerability to shocks.

Market Cap
£4.4B
Neutral
Size Category
Mid Cap
Neutral
🤖AI Analysis

PSN has a market cap of £4.4B (Mid Cap), resulting in a size risk score of 35/100. As a large-cap company, it has minimal size-related risk. Large companies benefit from scale, diversified operations, established brands, and easier access to capital. While not immune to failure, they have resources to navigate challenges and lower statistical failure rates. Size provides stability and reduces existential risk, though it may limit explosive growth potential.

ℹ️

Educational Tool Only

The risk rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Analyst Forecasts

Forward-looking estimates from the analyst community for PSN.

Street ViewBalanced·High agreement
Balanced setup with +4.3% revenue growth and +7.0% EPS growth.
Confidence is high agreement, coverage sits at 17 analysts, forecast ranges show tight ranges, 30-day EPS revisions are improving.
Consensus
+4.3% revenue growth
Consensus target of 1627.61p
Confidence
High agreement
Based on 17 analysts with tight ranges
Watch Item
Execution needs to hold
Strong growth expectations leave less room for disappointment if execution slows.
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Openbook AI
That view is based on 17 analysts. High agreement means the Street is telling a fairly coherent story.

Yearly Revenue and 2-Year Forecast

Reported revenue for the last 5 years, followed by low, consensus, and high analyst revenue estimates for the next two years. Consensus revenue implies +4.3% YoY growth tight ranges on revenue estimates

Openbook AI
Revenue is projected to move from 3.2B last year to 3.6B in 2025E and 3.7B in 2026E. That implies +11.7% into 2025E and +4.3% into 2026E on the top line. The 2026E range of 3.4B to 3.9B suggests tight ranges on revenue expectations. For you, this matters because top-line misses usually flow straight through to EPS cuts and weaker price-path outcomes.

2-Year EPS Estimates

Low, consensus, and high analyst EPS estimates for the next two fiscal years. Consensus EPS implies +7.0% YoY growth tight ranges on EPS estimates

Openbook AI
Analysts are currently looking for 97.44p in 2025E and 104.22p in 2026E. The outer-year range runs from 101.97p to 108.99p, which counts as tight ranges. For you, that means the market is still underwriting +7.0% EPS growth over the next leg of the story.