Time Out Group plc(TMO)
GBX --+0.00%
Reward47Moderate
Risk70High
📊75%Data
Thin -87% profit margin · Revenue down 56% YoY
TMO
+0.0 · +0.00%
GBX · LSE
Time Out Group plc | Consumer Cyclical
Earnings Deterioration
Market Cap:43.64M
ℹ️
Reward Rating
47
Moderate
Bottom 25% (model universe)
75% data coverage
ℹ️
Risk Rating
70
High
Risk Assessment
ℹ️

Educational tool only – Scores are based on historical data and financial metrics for informational purposes. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser.

ℹ️ Educational tool only · More

Market Performance

Stock returned +10.0% over the past year, broadly in line with market conditions.

Analyst Target

Analyst consensus price target: 90p.

What is Time Out Group plc?

Time Out Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the media and hospitality business worldwide.

TMO · Verdict

Moderate reward · elevated risk

TMO's standout is volatility; balance sheet and cash flow weigh on the picture.

Based on 88% data coverage

TMO · Verdict

What’s working & what to watch

Strengths 1

  • Volatility95/100

    Top decile vs peers

Watchouts 4

  • Balance sheet6/100

    Current ratio 0.51

  • Cash flow6/100

    -15% free-cash-flow margin

  • Profitability32/100

    -87% net margin · -24% ROE

  • Valuation35/100

    PEG ratio 0.00

Model-based scoring. For information only — not financial advice.

What is Time Out Group plc?

Time Out Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the media and hospitality business worldwide. The company operates through Time Out Market and Time Out Media segments. The company is listed on the LSE in UK, operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector, with a market capitalisation of 43.64M.

Financial Highlights

Investment Breakdown

📈 Growth
Moderate growth momentum — positive trajectory without breakout acceleration.
💰 Profitability
Thin or inconsistent margins weigh on earnings quality.
⚠️ Risk
Performance tied to macro conditions — sensitive to interest rate cycles.
💸 Valuation
Valuation is less clear with a negative earnings base.

OpenBook Logo Analysis

Reward: Moderate (47)

The scoring profile indicates limited reward potential at this time, with growth and momentum offering the most support. Risk indicators are elevated — volatility and macro sensitivity warrant consideration.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Company Information
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Market Cap43.64M
P/E RatioN/A
Dividend YieldN/A
52 Week High35
52 Week Low8.05
Last AnnualDecember
IPO DateN/A
IncorporatedUK
Shares Outstanding523M
No. of Employees502
IndustryRestaurants
ExchangeLSE
Beta0.07
CurrencyGBX

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Uses ISF.L (iShares FTSE 100 ETF)
Indicators

Performance Metrics

Historical returns

Annual Returns

Calendar year performance

Insufficient price history.
Fundamentals
Fundamentals Insights
Educational tool only. Not financial advice.

Business Snapshot

  • Revenue TrendDecelerating
  • Profitability TrendDeteriorating
  • Balance Sheet StrengthWeak
  • Cash GenerationWeak

Risk Flags

Structural indicators detected (5):
Growth
  • Revenue growth has decelerated for 2 consecutive years (-29.0% latest).
  • Revenue remains 30.0% below the prior peak from 2023.
Balance Sheet
  • Tangible equity is negative (equity less goodwill and intangibles).
  • Interest coverage is -5.85x (below 3.0x).
  • Net debt / EBITDA is above recent norm (6.61x latest).

What Changed This Year

Compared to 2024:
  • Operating Income↓ 828266.7%
  • Free Cash Flow↓ 1010.2%
  • Net Income↓ 588.3%
  • EBITDA↓ 552.9%

Income Statement

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Balance Sheet

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Cash Flow

CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A
CAGR: N/A

Key Ratios

Net Margin
-87.11%
Net Income / Revenue
Operating Margin
-67.88%
Operating Income / Revenue
ROE
225.60%
Net Income / Equity
Debt-to-Equity
-3.05x
Net Debt / Equity
FCF Yield
-24.55%
FCF / Market Cap
Key Takeaway

Balanced ownership with meaningful insider stakes and moderate institutional participation.

40.1% Insider 47.1% Institutional 12.8% Float
87%
Total Owned
Insider
Institutional
Public Float
40.1%
Insider

Insider Ownership

Very Bullish

Insiders own 40.1%, which indicates very strong alignment between management and shareholders.

47.1%
Institutional

Institutional Ownership

Moderate

Institutions own 47.1%, which suggests a balanced ownership mix.

12.8%
Public

Public Float

Very Low

Public float is 12.8%, which suggests concentrated ownership and tighter liquidity.

Reward Rating Breakdown

Our Reward Rating provides a model-based reward profile for TMO using 5 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 and combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Reward Rating
47
Moderate REWARD
Data Coverage: 75%

📈 Growth

Weight: 40%
57/100

Growth measures the company's ability to expand its business over time through revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Historical (60%)
Revenue CAGR (3yr)
0.1%
Neutral
Net Income CAGR (3yr)
48.3%
Very Good
FCF CAGR (3yr)
Neutral
Forward Estimates (40%)
Rev Est Growth (NTM)
44.4%
Very Good
EPS Est Growth (NTM)
414.7%
Very Good
Analyst Target Upside
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

TMO scored 57/100 for growth, blending a 3-year historical track record (60%) with analyst forward estimates (40%). Historical revenue CAGR of 0.1% is modest. Net income expanded at 48.3%, indicating material earnings growth. Forward: analysts forecast 44.4% revenue growth next year, EPS expected to grow 414.7%. Overall, growth metrics are moderately positive. Forecasts and analyst targets are estimates and may be inaccurate.

🚀 Momentum

Weight: 25%
50/100

Momentum is assessed relative to the FTSE 100 benchmark where available. This provides context for recent price movement across different market conditions.

12M vs Benchmark 30%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
6M vs Benchmark 25%
Absolute return
No Benchmark
3M Return 20%
Neutral
Consistency 15%
3m vs 1Y/4 normalised
No Data
Volume Trend 10%
30d vs 90d avg volume
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

Insufficient price history to assess momentum. Score defaulted to neutral (50).

💰 Profitability

Weight: 20%
32/100

Profitability examines both the current margin level and margin expansion trends. High and expanding margins indicate pricing power and operational efficiency.

Gross Margin 25%
82.6%
Sector avg 45%
Higher Relative
Net Margin 20%
-87.1%
Sector avg 10%
Loss Making
FCF Conversion 20%
0%
FCF / Net Income
Very Bad
EBIT Growth (3yr) 15%
Neutral
ROE (TTM) 10%
-24.3%
Very Bad
ROA (TTM) 10%
-8.5%
Very Bad
🤖Model Commentary

TMO scores 32/100 for profitability, assessed sector-relative on margins and via absolute thresholds for capital efficiency. Gross margin of 82.6% is 83% above the sector average of 45% — indicating margins are materially above peers. The company is currently loss-making with a net margin of -87.1%. FCF conversion of 0% is low — reported earnings may overstate true cash generation. Overall, profitability metrics are weaker across multiple model inputs. Profitability trends can change and should be reviewed alongside balance-sheet risk.

💎 Valuation

Weight: 15%
35/100

Valuation is scored sector-relative — each metric is compared against the typical multiple for this industry, so a high P/E in Healthcare is judged differently to a high P/E in Energy. PEG and Price/FCF use absolute thresholds.

PEG Ratio 25%
0.00
No Data
EV/EBITDA 25%
18.6x
Sector avg 12x
Material Premium vs Peers
Fwd P/E 20%
0.0x
Sector avg 18x
Material Premium vs Peers
Price/FCF 20%
No Sector Data
EV/Sales 10%
1.8x
Sector avg 2x
Moderate Relative Value
🤖Model Commentary

TMO received a valuation score of 35/100 using sector-relative scoring. Its Forward P/E of 0.0x is 100% below the sector average of 18x. EV/EBITDA of 18.6x sits 55% above the sector norm of 12x. Overall, valuation multiples are higher than selected sector references. Valuation metrics are not forecasts of future returns.

⚠️

Educational Tool Only

The reward rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Risk Rating Breakdown

Our Risk Rating provides a model-based risk profile for TMO using 4 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0-100 (higher = riskier), then combined using the weights shown below.

Overall Risk Rating
70
High RISK
Data Coverage: 100%

⚖️ Financial Solvency

Weight: 35%
94/100

Financial Solvency measures the company's ability to service and repay its debt obligations. Five sub-metrics are weighted to produce the composite score.

Interest Coverage (25%)
-5.8x
Highest Risk Band
Net Debt / EBITDA (20%)
Current Ratio (20%)
0.51x
Highest Risk Band
Debt Trend 3yr (15%)
+94%
Rapidly Deteriorating
FCF / Debt Coverage (20%)
-12%
Highest Distress Risk
🤖Model Commentary

TMO has a financial solvency risk score of 94/100. This indicates elevated leverage risk in this model. Interest coverage is -5.8x—earnings barely cover debt service. A current ratio of 0.51x means current liabilities exceed current assets, a near-term liquidity concern. Heavily leveraged companies can face refinancing pressure and increased sensitivity to rate changes or earnings weakness.

💼 Operational Quality

Weight: 30%
94/100

Operational Quality measures bottom-line efficiency, cash generation, capital productivity, and margin consistency — four equally weighted signals of business model resilience.

Net Margin (25%)
-87.1%
Higher Distress Risk
FCF Margin (25%)
-14.6%
Higher Distress Risk
Cash ROA (25%)
-7.3%
Poor
Margin Stability (25%)
±52.9pp
Highly Variable
🤖Model Commentary

TMO scores 94/100 for operational quality, indicating high operational risk. Key concerns: a negative net margin of -87.1% — the company is loss-making; negative FCF (-14.6% FCF margin) — the business is cash burning; weak capital efficiency with -7.3% Cash ROA; significant margin instability of ±52.9pp over 3 years — the primary risk driver here. These weaknesses make the business vulnerable to cost shocks or revenue shortfalls. Monitor profitability trends closely.

📉 Volatility

Weight: 25%
5/100

Volatility measures price instability, worst-case drawdowns, and sensitivity to broader market moves.

Annualised Volatility (35%)
Max Drawdown (35%)
Beta (30%)
0.07
Very Defensive
🤖Model Commentary

TMO has a volatility risk score of 5/100. This indicates unusually low historical volatility for an equity in the measured period. Volatility regimes can change, so this profile should still be reviewed alongside broader risk factors.

📊 Size Factor

Weight: 10%
80/100

Size factor captures existential risk. Smaller companies have higher failure rates, less diversification, and greater vulnerability to shocks.

Market Cap
£0.0B
Neutral
Size Category
Nano Cap
Neutral
🤖Model Commentary

TMO has a market cap of £0.0B (Nano Cap), resulting in a size risk score of 80/100. As a smaller company, it faces elevated business and funding risk. Small and micro-caps have higher failure rates, less diversified revenue, and greater vulnerability to competitive threats or economic shocks. They often lack scale advantages and may struggle to access capital markets during stress. Smaller companies can experience higher dispersion of outcomes, including business failure or sustained capital impairment. Diversification is important when investing at this size.

ℹ️

Educational Tool Only

The risk rating and analysis shown above are based on historical financial data and quantitative metrics, provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Analyst Forecasts

Forward-looking analyst estimates for TMO. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.

Revenue+17.0% growth
Based on 1 analyst
EPS+420.3% growth
EPS revisions stable over the past 30 days
Forecast ToneBalanced·Low agreement
Balanced consensus profile with +17.0% revenue growth and +420.3% EPS growth.
Confidence is low agreement, coverage sits at 1 analysts, forecast ranges show tight ranges, 30-day EPS revisions are flat.
Consensus
+17.0% revenue growth
Consensus target of 90.00p
Confidence
Low agreement
Based on 1 analysts with tight ranges
Watch Item
Low analyst coverage
A small analyst base can move the consensus quickly after any new update.

Share Price Forecast

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Model Commentary
That view is based on 1 analysts. Low agreement means the Street is still split on the likely outcome. Analyst targets and forecasts can change quickly after new company or market information.

Yearly Revenue and 2-Year Forecast

Reported revenue for the last 5 years, followed by low, consensus, and high analyst revenue estimates for the next two years. Consensus revenue implies +17.0% YoY growth tight ranges on revenue estimates

Model Commentary
Revenue is projected to move from 33.6M last year to — in 2025E and 128.2M in 2026E. That implies -100.0% into 2025E on the top line. The 2026E range of 128.2M to 128.2M suggests tight ranges on revenue expectations. Revenue misses can lead to EPS estimate revisions and changes in valuation assumptions. Forecast ranges reflect uncertainty and should be read alongside risk metrics.

2-Year EPS Estimates

Low, consensus, and high analyst EPS estimates for the next two fiscal years. Consensus EPS implies +420.3% YoY growth tight ranges on EPS estimates

Model Commentary
Analysts are currently looking for -0.34p in 2025E and 1.07p in 2026E. The outer-year range runs from 1.07p to 1.07p, which counts as tight ranges. Consensus currently models +420.3% EPS growth over the next period. EPS estimates are subject to revision and do not guarantee future results.